|On 22-May-2018 Estey wrote:
>Risk is a function of consequence and likelihood. I reckon with good management
>you can reduce the likelihood of catastrophe enough.
I think there is a climbing-wide habit of rounding small probabilities down to zero, and then repeating the low risk action tens of thousands of times. In fact, it's a pretty common error that most humans make.
>In the case of younger children I'm actually way more worried about them
>at the crag when they aren't roped up and climbing.
Yeah, but this doesn't negate the risks of climbing, it gets added on. You don't really care whether your kid gets crippled climbing or gully scrambling. What should interest you is the total risk you're exposing your kids to.
>As for the percentage of kids maimed or killed ... that is out of my control
>... all I can do is hope and pray it doesn't happen.
Wrongo. The more risk you expose your kids to, the greater chance they will win the bad lottery. Along with all the other crag parents, your choices affect total population injury rates.
Bringing more young kids into climbing will result in serious injuries and fatalities of children at crags. Most of them won't be freak things like poorly assembled draws, it'll be the same basic mechanisms which kill and injure adults (inattentive belays, half-tied knots, loose rock, single points of pro failing resulting in ground falls, etc, etc).
The important point is that these accident mechanisms are well known and understood, and we can't stamp them out amongst adults. You guys are deluding yourselves if you think the population-wide results will be any different with kids.
>Not that much different than having a backyard pool with toddlers in the
I don't really think the benefits justify the risks there either.
>I believe that kids who grow up bushwalking, climbing, skiing, paddling,
>canyoning, surfing, fishing, sailing etc are going to end up being way
>safer in the mountains and on the ocean when they are adults. I'm not sure
>exactly why this is.
I think you're just making that up. It might be right, but it might not be.