Chockstone Forum - General Discussion
General Climbing Discussion
|OT: Moorabal/Lal Lal wind farm
||14-Jul-2009 At 11:09:28 PM
|On 14/07/2009 R James wrote:
>I've been using the null hypothesis in statistical analysis for over 40
>years. I don't think I need to study it. If you want to you can apply it
>in the study of models. Basically, the population of data generated by
>the IPCC models in the past few years doesn't match real temperature populations.
>Therefore the null hypothesis isn't satisfied. Then you might like to consider
>whether the hypothesis has been confounded. If it has, it hasn't contributed
>to the validity of the model. It simply shows that the model didn't include
>all the contributing effects.
>But back to basics, unless a mathematical model can predict real data,
>it isn't valid.
i'm sure you're right that there's very little detailed prediction coming from the IPCC models. but the part that I think is important is that there is a significant temperature trend over the past 100 years, and I haven't seen anything convincing to explain it except ACC.
the general effect of greenhouse gases is without question, the increase in atmospheric gases since the industrial revolution is well known, and its clear that this would play some role. the size of this role is of course debateable, but the presence of this effect is very clear. given that changes in solar output, variations in orbit and other effects (cosmic rays etc) don't seem able to explain the changes, its the best explanation on the table.
if someone could show that the observations could be explained in a different way, i would genuinely be interested, but nothing i've seen so far seems to hold up to any scrutiny.
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