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A mate a I have got a carload of aid gear and a week off from life. We're leaving Adelaide right now, and have seen the forecast for the Alps. It doesn't look great. Our plan was to head over and do Ozy, and depending on time, try Passport to Insanity on the way home.
We'd love some input from a local, how likely is Buffalo to see the Hotham forecast? There's a storm due on Tuesday, and we're kinda thinking that being on Big Grassy during that time would be unfun.
Also, if we were on Ozy and it started drizzling or raining, does the route stay very dry? Eg, does the roof shelter the lower part of the route?
Aside from not actually being very local, I do have a weather obsession ... I use the Bright forecaset for Buffalo. It is never as bad as the Hotham forecast, but will be 5-10 degrees cooler than the bright one. Sadly, there is still 90% chance of rain.
On that forecast, I would either high tail it to Buffalo and try and do Ozy in a day and be out of there for Tues/Wed, or stop off in the Gramps first and do Passport (the forecast here looks fine - Hamilton has a low chance of 1-5mm with a description of sunny, so I wouldn't expect much out of it. And there is a bloody great big roof above you for 2/3 of the route!) then aim for Ozy of Thurs/Fri, which whilst not perfect, look a hell of a lot better.
Weatherzone has a 48 hour detailed forecast, if you keep an eye on that, you may find the weather is coming in until late on Tuesday giveing you a few more hours to get out of there if you decide to go for Ozy.
Thanks for your suggestions Wendy, we had arrived at a similar decision ourselves. We had initially planned not to do passport first to avoid the heat, but I'd rather be sweating while climbing in the heat than sitting around at buffalo in the rain.
We're certainly not able to do ozy in a day, both pretty new to aiding, we're hoping for 2.5 days.
Hoping to get a bit of morning shade on passport tomorrow...
On 23/02/2014 Mike Bee wrote:
>A mate a I have got a carload of aid gear and a week off from life. We're
>leaving Adelaide right now, and have seen the forecast for the Alps. It
>doesn't look great. Our plan was to head over and do Ozy, and depending
>on time, try Passport to Insanity on the way home.
>We'd love some input from a local, how likely is Buffalo to see the Hotham
>forecast? There's a storm due on Tuesday, and we're kinda thinking that
>being on Big Grassy during that time would be unfun.
>Also, if we were on Ozy and it started drizzling or raining, does the
>route stay very dry? Eg, does the roof shelter the lower part of the route?
Wendy's advice about Bright weather is a good tip. Cross-reference it also with Wangaratta and Beechworth (or Albury/Wodonga), to fine tune it further.
I just looked at the synoptic chart four day forecast and reckon you will be pretty right, especially if finishing Ozy on Wednesday, which unfortunately is the iffiest weather day and also unfortunately the timing is in the middle of your climbing week.
Having said that, it is still often a 50 / 50 thing for bad weather at Buffalo, even when bad weather is forecast!
In this instance, basically what the Meteorological Bureau is saying; is chance of mostly-dry-type storms, and in my opinion you would be unlucky if you got one.
If you do, it will be short lived and things will dry out fairly quickly.
... Then again being on a wall can guarantee a large run-off above you, even for short events, so to answer your second question, only the portion of Ozy Direct between Big Grassy and the top of The Fang, tends to remain dry in light rain/drizzle.
... Or to put it another way, the lower half gets wet, and the last two pitches get wet. (This also applies to Ozy Original, but make it the last 3 piches for that line).
I have waited out wet weather at Gledhill Bivvy in the past, and it was quite pleasant, though I got a bit of a shock trying to do some free moves above the headwall above, due to them being still quite slick while wet.
I think it was Mark Twight who said something along the lines of "If you wait for the weather, you will climb jack-shit"...
Passport is not too hot - with the altitude, breezes and being a bit further south, I don't think you'll have a problem this week. Do you have a 4wd? The walk from the top is better than the walk from the bottom.