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OT: Skeptics vs Alarmist Cage Match unSpectacular!

jono_1

25-Jun-2009
3:28:46 PM

AND TO CONCLUDE
(from Bob Carter's essay is Quadrant- I like to get a balanced view!!)

" As Christopher Essex and Ross McKitrick (in Taken by Storm) have observed:

'Global warming is a topic that sprawls in a thousand directions. There is no such thing as an ‘expert’ on global warming, because no one can master all the relevant subjects. On the subject of climate change everyone is an amateur on many if not most of the relevant topics.'

It is therefore a brave scientist who essays an expert public opinion on the global warming issue, that bravery being always but one step from foolhardiness. "


Eduardo Slabofvic

25-Jun-2009
3:34:18 PM

On 25/06/2009 evanbb wrote:
>The more heavily reliant we are on scarce resources, the worse the pain WHEN they do run out. I doubt
the sun and
>win are about to run out any time soon.

An interesting point you raise. Wisdom vs knowledge. Science is knowledge, science is not wisdom.

TonyB

26-Jun-2009
9:22:15 AM

On 25/06/2009 TonyB wrote:

>Let me try to understand the mind of the alarmist. From what I can gather
>from the posts here, this is the alarmist view. Please correct me where
>you think it necessary:
>
>THE ALARMIST VIEW OF GLOBAL WARMING
>
>1. 600,000 yrs of ice cores show show that CO2 increases of 100ppm or
>so, cause global temperatures to increase by about 10 degrees every 120,000
>yrs or so. This was proven in Al Gore's movie.
>
>2. There is no explanation given for these CO2 increases but we assume
>its caused by visits by aliens every 120,000 years ??
>
>3. There have been no temperatures higher than today in this period.
>
>4. The global temperature has been more or less constant for the past
>10,000 years and not higher than today.
>
>5. Man's massively increased fossil fuel burning from 1945 caused CO2
>levels to increase by 80ppm, which caused global temperatures to skyrocket
>by 0.4 degrees, to the current unprecedented levels.
>
>6. The proof of the connection between man's CO2 and temperatures is computer
>models which also predicted the past 11 years of no temperature increase.
>
>7. Global temperature changes are not caused by the same natural forces
>that have been in play for the past 4 billion years.
>
>Is that about it ????
>As I said, please correct any points where I have misunderstood you.

Come on guys ... I'm trying to understand how the twisted mind of an alarmist works. Or could it be that when you lay the alarmist nonsense out, it really does look kind of stupid ?

lacto

26-Jun-2009
10:46:55 AM

>Come on guys ... I'm trying to understand how the twisted mind of an alarmist
>works. Or could it be that when you lay the alarmist nonsense out, it really
>does look kind of stupid ?

all you need to do is swap the word alarmist with TonyB and it starts to make sense .

OK tony say you are right burning carbon doesnt warm us up . BP state at current consumption levels there is known reserves of coal for 130 years oil 42 and natural gas 60 . givne that the average Indian /Chinese consume 500kwh of electricity per year versus 15 to 20,000 kwh in usa , europe and australia and both nations state that as far as they are concerned if the developed nations wish to reduce co2 thats fine but the only want to raise their standard of living to a comparable level - fuel reserves will last maybe 40 years . Then how do we power the world , at least it wont be any warmer according to the twisted minds of the Tonys.

jono_1

26-Jun-2009
11:29:50 AM

Hi Tony,
re your questions

1) Al Gore didnt prove it and from what i have heard he was possibly using the 420000yr Vostok core as opposed the more recently drilled EPICA core which extends back to ~600000 and the relationship between T and CO2 is more tightly contstrained. And yes it shows a roughly 800yr lag for CO2. There is a fairly decent theory behind the lag (positive feedback). It makes sense to me. If it doesn't seem plausible to you Tony I'd be interested to hear your opinion on what might have caused CO2 to rapidly increase after a temperature rise (I genuinely am interested)

2) positive feedbacks is a plausible explanation. Aliens I'm not sure about though.

3) Wrong of course and we all know that. Holcene thermal maximum occured around 4000 years ago.

4) Again wrong. Around 10,000 years ago the earth was rapidly coming out of a glacial period.

5) Yeh I'd agree with that. But perhaps around 0.6-0.7 since 1945 or since 1980. Around 1degree C in the nothern hemisphere.

6) human CO2 or natural CO2, more or less the same. There is other evidence of CO2-Temperature relationship. Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum event.
Greenhouse gas/greenhouse effect is what keeps the Earth at a more or less stable and livable 14degrees C.
Venus has very high atmospheric CO2 content, large greenhouse effect and the surface is much hotter than the Earth, even taking into account increased incoming solar radiation due to being closer to the Sun.

7) Sure they are. Plate tectonics don't play a major role on decadal or century timeframes. Solar variation (11yr cycle) is estimated to effect Earths temperature by 0.1degrees C or so and during the Maunder minimum by around 1degrees C ( I think 1deg C). Orbital variations have minimal influence over decadal timeframes. etc, etc

Tony we are not all bloody alarmists. Get over it. We simply have a different opinion to you regarding CO2 (human induced or natural). Neither of us have provided conclusive evidence and I doubt any of us here will.

Anyway like someone just posted moving to a low carbon world, more sustainable energy sources is the way to go anyway. And its not just the hippies/greenies/alarmists that think this is a good thing.
Helen Ridout, from the Australia Industry Group has publicly stated we should be moving to a low carbon, sustainable energy economy. But then she is just sucking up to Rudd i guess.
Wouldn't it be great if we could supply third world villages, who have no access to electricity, cheap solar/wind energy for electricity and water pumps, health and education. Wouldnt it be easier to have on-site sustainable power generation (solar/wind) than connect every small village in India or Africa to the electricity grid).
On a recent trip to the Bolivian Amazon we lived in a remote village for a couple of weeks. No power at all. You should see the excitement on their faces when they talk about the solar panels that are being installed and that maybe one day they might all be able to turn a light on in their house for maybe an hour a night.The chance of them ever having access to any other forms of electricity other than their small/broken and hugely expensive diesle generator is exactly zero, no chance.

So actually I don't give a crap if you are right Tony. If the billions we have wasted, as you say, actually drives more sustainable energy forms I'm all for it.

Sorry about any spelling/grammer mistakes.


JimboV10

26-Jun-2009
11:53:48 AM

Cant we all just go climbing?

jono_1

26-Jun-2009
12:17:19 PM

yeh sorry Jimbo. Not more climate BS.

I'm going climbing to Tianjara falls (near Nowra) tommorow for the first time, AND IM EXCITED. Just printed the guide out and looks awesome and amazing location. You only have to look on google maps to see just how much rock there is in this area. Its totally amazing.

Has anyone else been??


JimboV10

26-Jun-2009
12:34:34 PM

Not yet.. Sport? Trad? Is the guide on climb.org.au?


nmonteith

26-Jun-2009
12:34:53 PM

On 26/06/2009 jono_1 wrote:
>I'm going climbing to Tianjara falls (near Nowra) tommorow for the first
>time, AND IM EXCITED. Just printed the guide out and looks awesome and
>amazing location. You only have to look on google maps to see just how
>much rock there is in this area. Its totally amazing.
>
>Has anyone else been??

I'll be there tomorrow as well! I can give you a bit of a tour - should be there around midday, as i've got two projects on another cliff nearby i need to polish off first. I'll be there on sunday as well.


nmonteith

26-Jun-2009
12:49:39 PM

On 26/06/2009 JimboV10 wrote:
>Not yet.. Sport? Trad? Is the guide on climb.org.au?

Mostly sport, some trad.
http://www.climb.org.au/index.php?page_id=10&action=crag&crag_id=476

jono_1

26-Jun-2009
12:53:04 PM

I first went to Tianjara 10-12 years ago when I had been climbing for about a month and remember seeing some bolts. It is such a beautiful area.

The pdf guide is an excellent idea and cheap, especially when you print at work!!!


evanbb

26-Jun-2009
1:13:45 PM

On 26/06/2009 jono_1 wrote:
>I first went to Tianjara 10-12 years ago when I had been climbing for about
>a month and remember seeing some bolts. It is such a beautiful area.
>
>The pdf guide is an excellent idea and cheap, especially when you print
>at work!!!

How far is it from Canberra? Looking for a sheltered 16-22 crag for the weekend. Might end up jamming my bleeding paws into some cracks at the Cloisters.

jono_1

26-Jun-2009
1:40:18 PM

Depends how fast you want to drive!!! Under 2 hours.There should not be any roadwork on weekend and the dirt section from Nerriga to Tianjara has recently been graded (according to a friend who was stuck behind it). A month ago it was totally crap, corrugated and full of potholes. I have used this road heaps travelling from Canberra to Nowra and its a lot quicker.

The best way to get there from Canberra is via Bungendore, then Tarago, then Oallen the onto Nerriga. There is only about 5km of gravel. the other way is via Braidwood but more dirt road and pretty sure longer.

climberman

26-Jun-2009
2:13:30 PM

Where's the access - say I'm at the lookout having parked the car in the carpark - where do I head to ?

Looks quite nice up there.


nmonteith

26-Jun-2009
2:19:37 PM

Walk right away from the waterfall (when looking out from the lookout). The first gully is a bit of scramble down (Bill James Testimonial Gully), the next gully down is much easier (Huskisson Homo and the Hill Top Hoods area). Another hundred metres is the gully down to Chunders Glenn. All quite simple really. The first crag is less than 50m from the lookout.


wallwombat

26-Jun-2009
2:27:21 PM

Do people camp out there?

We used to camp across the road from the lookout but that was baby that was years ago.

We left it all behind.

For my cheap wine and a three day growth.....

Sorry. Flashback


nmonteith

26-Jun-2009
2:29:30 PM

I just geocoded the crags on the ACA site. Just click on 'show map'.


nmonteith

26-Jun-2009
2:30:55 PM

On 26/06/2009 wallwombat wrote:
>Do people camp out there?

You can't actually camp in the carpark, but there are sneaky bush track spots all along the main road. Some of us have been camping at the carpark for the Moonshine crag which is nearby.


wallwombat

26-Jun-2009
2:41:42 PM

We should have hijacked this thread 23 pages ago.

jono_1

26-Jun-2009
3:43:13 PM

Weather alert by an alarmist,

Nowra: stinking hot with a top of 17 degrees C, a whole 0.5 above the monthly average.

Chance of shower or three.

There are 818 messages in this topic.