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General Climbing Discussion

Topic Date User
Climbing is safer 16-Sep-2010 At 1:22:13 PM prb
On 15/09/2010 b dubya wrote:
>if to say, the odds of carcing it on a climbing trip are 1 in 100 (just to make it easy). You >can deduce that if you go on 100 climbing trips, your number will come up. If you go on 1 >climbing trip (1:100) & live (great success!), your next trips odds will still be 1:100 and so >on - the odds of kicking it do not increase as you do more trips.

For the sake of the exercise, using the odds above, you would have a less than 50% chance of surviving 69 trips, a 37% chance of surviving 100 trips, a less than 10% chance of surviving 229 trips, and a less than 1% chance of surviving 459 trips. The chance of you surviving your 10,000th trip is 99%.

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