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Psychology of Risk Assessment

egosan

26-Nov-2012
9:09:21 AM

http://alpineinstitute.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/non-event-feedback-loopos.html

The American Alpine Institute has this short piece about one of the reasons we f--- up and die while climbing or skiing or whatever.

IdratherbeclimbingM9

26-Nov-2012
10:20:16 AM

'Non-event feedback loop' = the crag that you climb the most, the slope that you ski the most, the mountain that you've been up the most times...these are the most dangerous places that you will ever go.

Hmm. Not to detract from the efficacy of the article, but isn't that called complacency?

kieranl

26-Nov-2012
10:33:50 AM

On 26/11/2012 IdratherbeclimbingM9 wrote:
>'Non-event feedback loop' = the crag that you climb the most, the slope
>that you ski the most, the mountain that you've been up the most times...these
>are the most dangerous places that you will ever go.
>
>Hmm. Not to detract from the efficacy of the article, but isn't that called
>complacency?
>
>
Now we're getting complacent about articles warning about the dangers of complacency. There's an interesting feedback loop.

IdratherbeclimbingM9

26-Nov-2012
10:35:56 AM

On 26/11/2012 kieranl wrote:
>Now we're getting complacent about articles warning about the dangers
>of complacency. There's an interesting feedback loop.

Nah. I was just wondering about the technospeak of having a fancy new term for an old malady.
~> Sometimes I think we suffer from too much 'overseasure' and don't think for ourselves!

Eduardo Slabofvic

26-Nov-2012
10:35:59 AM

Life is the major cause of death

egosan

26-Nov-2012
10:39:36 AM

On 26/11/2012 IdratherbeclimbingM9 wrote:
>'Non-event feedback loop' = the crag that you climb the most, the slope
>that you ski the most, the mountain that you've been up the most times...these
>are the most dangerous places that you will ever go.
>
>Hmm. Not to detract from the efficacy of the article, but isn't that called
>complacency?
>
>

complacency (plural complacencies)
1. A feeling of contented self-satisfaction, especially when unaware of upcoming trouble. [quotations ▲]
1925, F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby, Chapter I
There was something pathetic in his concentration as if his complacency, more acute than of old, was not enough to him any more. When, almost immediately, the telephone rang inside and the butler left the porch Daisy seized upon the momentary interruption and leaned toward me.
2. An instance of self-satisfaction

I see what you are getting at, M9, however complacency is too often used as a cause for an accident. "He got squished by the steamroller because he became complacent." The author is talking about why and how we become "complacent." Regardless complacency is a poor word for describing a logical fallacy that we all seem prone to make because of way our brains are wired.

patto

26-Nov-2012
10:40:23 AM

Complacency is part of it, but complacency is a little different from assuming things are safe because you or somebody else did it earlier.

Group dynamics is also interesting but I think less relevant in climbing pairs as generally there either one or both are leaders (leaders in the general sense) and are assessing risk. In larger groups you can get situations where there are no competent leaders assessing risk and everyone is acting like sheep.

Some cruisy bushwalking just the weekend before I got caught out acting like a sheep and simply following the group. The guy up front wasn't really navigating appropriately and the rest simply followed. Eventually I sat down, pulled out a map and turned the group around. There was no real danger in this situation, but it I did still find it a lesson in how easy it is to be a sheep.

simey

26-Nov-2012
11:07:28 AM

It is a good little article. I'm not sure why they highlighted the line, "the crag that you climb the most, the slope that you ski the most, the mountain that you've been up the most times...these are the most dangerous places that you will ever go". I don't really think this is what the article is primarily about.

There is a good reply in the comments section comparing the article to the saying "Monkey see, monkey do". I'm a firm believer in using what other people have done before me as part of my analysis of risk, but I certainly don't assume that it then makes it safe. For example, climbing popular routes which have loose rock does give you the confidence that suspect blocks won't rattle down as soon as you touch them, but that is not to say that they can't still give way. Whenever I climb Bard (which has been repeated thousands of times) I still treat every detached piece of rock with extreme caution.

ironcheff

26-Nov-2012
12:09:21 PM

On 26/11/2012 IdratherbeclimbingM9 wrote:
>'Non-event feedback loop' = the crag that you climb the most, the slope
>that you ski the most, the mountain that you've been up the most times...these
>are the most dangerous places that you will ever go.
>
>Hmm. Not to detract from the efficacy of the article, but isn't that called
>complacency?
>

Also called probability. That's why Homer moved house when he found out 70% of car accidents happen close to his home.

robbie

26-Nov-2012
12:53:28 PM

Are yes Grass Hoppers, gravity is constant and the rock is always hard! Not to mention, "according to my old Kung Fu teacher," "never underestimate any opponent," and, "anticipation at a fork in the road could take you in the wrong direction!" "Keep your eyes in the road Rhonda!!!"
Complacency! Comfort zone!
Disequilibrium must be present for learning to occur. By involvement in an experience that is beyond one's comfort zone, individuals are forced to integrate new knowledge or reshape existent perceptions. (From Processing The Adventure Experience - R S, Nadler Psy. D. - J L. Luckner, Ed. D.)

Eduardo Slabofvic

26-Nov-2012
1:46:43 PM

Howabout "ones limits are best observed through the rear view mirror"

phillipivan

26-Nov-2012
2:58:09 PM

On 26/11/2012 robbie wrote:
>Are yes Grass Hoppers, gravity is constant and the rock is always hard!

Two fallices in one sentence, Nice work!

See for instance Lagrange points, or Ueli's substantial fall in the high himalaya's for instances of unusually low gravity; for soft rock, I suggest trad climbing in NZ.

julian.A

26-Nov-2012
3:01:30 PM

Classic non-event feedback from a Canyoner.
When I used to guide, we would regulary take a bit of old rope to back-up a dead tree abseil anchor, in a very popular canyon. Most times the back-up would be gone. One day i got there to find this guy (beard, stripped thermals ) removing the back-up and asked him why he was removing it.
"Look, I've been doing this canyon for 20 years, and that tree hasn't failed once". How could I argue with that logic ?
So I let him remove the back-up, and explained that the tree had been dead for the past 5 years, and now moved - as he went over the edge. Then I got the replacement back-up from my pack and retied it.

TonyB

26-Nov-2012
3:02:01 PM

I think there is one aspect of complacency that may not be so obvious. That is, when something is repeated a hundred times safely but then something subtle changes. I was lucky to avoid serious injury in a big fall in this manner, when rock hopping to a regular spear fishing spot. It was caused by having my weight belt over my shoulder instead of around my waist as I usually carry it.

kieranl

26-Nov-2012
3:13:15 PM

On 26/11/2012 phillipivan wrote:
>On 26/11/2012 robbie wrote:
>>Are yes Grass Hoppers, gravity is constant and the rock is always hard!
>
>Two fallices in one sentence, Nice work!
>
>See for instance Lagrange points, or Ueli's substantial fall in the high
>himalaya's for instances of unusually low gravity; for soft rock, I suggest
>trad climbing in NZ.

Two long hairy donkey dicks in one sentence? (ref: Urban dictionary)

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