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Chockstone Forum - Accidents & Injuries

Report Accidents and Injuries

 Page 1 of 2. Messages 1 to 20 | 21 to 21
Author
Risk of dying whilst climbing is 1 in a million
Olbert
24/06/2014
10:29:35 AM
...for every 90 seconds of climbing according to BS 6651:1999 Lightning protection.

So I was reading the Australian lightning protection standards and it had a table of risks of dying. For a comparison the risk of dying from a traffic accident is 1 in 8000 per year. I'm not sure how you would translate that into a per time basis, like the climbing statistic.

tnd
24/06/2014
10:33:57 AM
"1 in 8000 per year" is time based, is it not?

IdratherbeclimbingM9
Online Now
24/06/2014
10:42:40 AM
Climbing on low rock, high mountain, or climbing on some man made structure?
I think the latter would be what 'oh&s type' safety standards in statistical published form would be referring too.

>Risk of dying whilst climbing is 1 in a million
~> Probably a greater probability than that figure, due the other risks (apart from lightning), involved as well ...
;-)

1 in 8000 per year = 1:43.8 per 90 secs, by my pre-coffee reckoning.
In the words of simey as immortalised here, "bring me a latte coffee!" Heh, heh, heh.
;-)
Olbert
24/06/2014
10:52:54 AM
I found a second reference to that statistic here http://www.frcc.co.uk/archive/1980-1989/V23-2.pdf.

According to that the statistic originated from the 'Windscale Inquiry Report', 1978.

I should get back to work.
Olbert
24/06/2014
10:56:39 AM
On 24/06/2014 tnd wrote:
>"1 in 8000 per year" is time based, is it not?

Not in the same way. This is how many of your population you expect to die every year. If you don't drive, you are included in this statistic as part of the population that didn't die.

The climbing one is what the chances of you dying every 90 seconds is whilst climbing. If you don't climb you aren't gonna die climbing and aren't included in the statistic.
Reluctant
24/06/2014
1:05:10 PM
So if I climb for 5 days 6 hrs = 30 hrs = 36000 sec
Per 90 sec => 4:10000 => 1:2500
By extension Easter at araps 100 climbers = 1 in 25 chance of a death. At those odds should have a trauma medical tent and rescue team set up there all Easter.
One Day Hero
24/06/2014
1:19:18 PM
In reality there seems to be roughly one climber fatality in Australia per year (and maybe a couple of thousand regular climbers?). I reckon this super unscientific 1 in a couple of 1000/year guess is more accurate than all the weird crap you guys are on about.

Heaps of broken ankles and talus bones though, which is really worth paying attention to.
martym
24/06/2014
3:01:07 PM
At the 2007 Escalade in Katoomba, there was a NZ mountaineer presenting about the personality profiling of climbers - he surveyed mostly Mountaineers via a magazine ad; I think he said there were like 50 or so respondents - lots of interesting info etc.
But he said when they did the repeat survey a few years later - 4 had died... though I can't remember if they died climbing or other causes. But even if just 1 of them did - that's more than 1:1,000,000 even over a couple of years...

Anyone else remember that talk? It was right before the Rock Warriah

Ben_E
24/06/2014
3:20:54 PM
On 24/06/2014 Reluctant wrote:
>So if I climb for 5 days 6 hrs = 30 hrs = 36000 sec
>Per 90 sec => 4:10000 => 1:2500
>By extension Easter at araps 100 climbers = 1 in 25 chance of a death.
>At those odds should have a trauma medical tent and rescue team set up
>there all Easter.

That calculation would be ballpark consistent with John Dill's (probably outdated) analysis of accidents in Yosemite, which would place the odds of dying at about 1 death per every 10,000-20,000 days climbing. Obviously the odds of just breaking an ankle or injuring yourself more generally are much higher, as ODH points out.

http://jrre.org/stayalive.pdf

Capt_mulch
24/06/2014
5:15:55 PM
I think the risk of dying whilst not climbing is a lot greater, and a whole lot more boring... What do you want to do, be in a situation where you are going "I'm gonna die, I'm gonna fricken die", and then not die, or be in a situation where you are going "I'm not going to die", and then you do???
Wendy
24/06/2014
5:25:18 PM
The odds on discussion is all a bit stupid when you look at why people die climbing. I can't remember where I first read this, but I think it still holds true - climbers (and I'm not talking mountaineering here, I heard a figure of 10% or so of them will probably in 10 years of mountaineering, which roughly correlates with that speaker), any, back on track, climbers die from not using a rope (soloing, access and descents) and inexperience, which loosely covers equipment mistakes, poor judgement and the abundence of things to hit on easy climbs. And maybe gear failure was on that list as well, but as some large degree of gear failure is an equipment mistake, maybe it wasn't.

Given that, a capable climber with good judgement who doesn't solo is far less likely to die, so that means all the bumblies in the world have a much greater chance of dying, so if we look back at that easter at Araps scenario - 1 in 10!

Capt_mulch
24/06/2014
5:33:23 PM
Whilst living in the deep dark recesses of the Solomon Islands a few years ago (OK, Munda), I started to have lots of accidents. I pranged my truck, I stuck a freshly sharpened chisel into my wrist (all tendons intact!), I had the worst fall off my pushbike ever (those damn slippery coral car parks), plus other minor stuff, but I noticed I never hurt myself drinking beer. I decided after a while that sitting around and drinking beer was a very safe activity. The only problem is, you don't get much climbing done. Quandary!

IdratherbeclimbingM9
Online Now
24/06/2014
5:53:04 PM
On 24/06/2014 Capt_mulch wrote:
>Whilst living in the deep dark recesses of the Solomon Islands a few years
>ago (OK, Munda), I started to have lots of accidents. I pranged my truck,
>I stuck a freshly sharpened chisel into my wrist (all tendons intact!),
>I had the worst fall off my pushbike ever (those damn slippery coral car
>parks), plus other minor stuff, but I noticed I never hurt myself drinking
>beer. I decided after a while that sitting around and drinking beer was
>a very safe activity. The only problem is, you don't get much climbing
>done. Quandary!

That'sBSmulchy(!), ... just like an egyptianverdict against PGreste...

I have it on good authority that you went fishing, hiking, and partying instead.








Climbing quandary. Ppffftt, ~> I will believe it when I see it!
Heh, heh, heh.
;-)

rodw
24/06/2014
7:53:06 PM
On 24/06/2014 Capt_mulch wrote:
> I decided after a while that sitting around and drinking beer was
>a very safe activity. The only problem is, you don't get much climbing
>done. Quandary!

You need to come climbing with me and dude more often me thinks..quandary solved.
radson
24/06/2014
8:22:44 PM
I always thought this was an interesting article on risk and how to measure risk, although as someone points out in another post, the unit of measurement should be micromort not millimort

http://utahavalanchecenter.org/blog-what-risk-riding-avalanche-terrain
Wendy
24/06/2014
8:47:14 PM
What are all those people getting out of bed dying of? There are 317 million people in america. I'm going to extremely roughly estimate that about 4 million of them are 20ish (from 317/75), so on those stats, about 4 20 year olds die getting out of bed each day.
Reluctant
24/06/2014
11:00:55 PM
Don't forget the 20 (1 in 15 million) who die taking the morning dump. A shitty way to go.
Olbert
25/06/2014
6:20:59 PM
On 24/06/2014 Reluctant wrote:
>Don't forget the 20 (1 in 15 million) who die taking the morning dump.
>A shitty way to go.

My girlfriend does not approve of your pun.
martym
25/06/2014
6:23:30 PM
While you shit yourself laughing?

Capt_mulch
26/06/2014
5:14:38 AM
On 24/06/2014 rodw wrote:
>On 24/06/2014 Capt_mulch wrote:
>> I decided after a while that sitting around and drinking beer was
>>a very safe activity. The only problem is, you don't get much climbing
>>done. Quandary!
>
>You need to come climbing with me and dude more often me thinks..quandary
>solved.

Good idea, no-one to go climbing with up here in LIsmore - I think they're all too stoned - time to get the self belay gear out or head to Sydney for some sandstone...

 Page 1 of 2. Messages 1 to 20 | 21 to 21
There are 21 messages in this topic.

 

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